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The higher level qualifications dominate in the long-term labour force forecasts (June 2012)

In June 2012, the Ministry of Economics published its “Informative Report on the long- and medium-term labour market forecasts”, which outlines the current situation in the Latvian labour market, as well as the medium-term labour market forecasts until 2020 and long-term labour market forecasts until 2030 prepared by the Ministry of Economics are included.

The calculations in the report were based on the provisional results of 2011 census. The projections were prepared in accordance with economic development objectives, as well as with the weaker growth scenarios. The sectoral growth rates and productivity changes are also provided in the forecasts.

In the forecasts for the labour force demand and supply the following aspects are taken into account: demographic changes, changes in inhabitants’ economic activity, the employed age structure in occupational groups, education offer, the current gap between the education level of the employed and the required level of education for an occupation, occupational mobility, etc.

The report provides several recommendations for adapting the labour force supply to demand.

  • Higher education should increase its provision in such sectors as:

wmwmwm* Engineering;
wmwmwm* Information and communication technologies;
wmwmwm* Health care, social welfare, the pharmaceutical industry.

  • Vocational secondary education should increase its provision in the following sectors:

wmwmwm* Agriculture;
wmwmwm* Metal working, mechanical engineering and related fields;
wmwmwm* Industrial equipment and machine operators;
wmwmwm* In a few service sectors, e.g. information processing, hotel, restaurant and tourism, etc.

It is expected that within the medium-term specialists of various fields will need to change their qualification.

  • Specialists with higher education:

wmwmwm* About 10% in humanities and social sciences;
wmwmwm* About 10% in trade and business;
wmwmwm* About 5% in education establishments;

  • Specialists with vocational secondary education:

wmwmwm* About 5% in construction industry-related sectors;
wmwmwm* About 5% in services-related sectors;
wmwmwm* About 20% of the economically active inhabitants having basic education or lower wmwmwmweducation level.

The full text of the report is available here (LV).

Source: Ministry of Economics


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